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I intend to use an AI method for modeling to predict road crashes and safety sorrogate measures. The dependent variables are crash frequency and other measures that are nonnegative integers. The independent variables are characteristics of road such as lane width, shoulder width, radius of horizontal curves, etc. I searched through the review articles that investigated various AI methods for prediction. I found two articles that were about predicting the energy use of buildings. In those review articles it was concluded that the best prediction method is the hybrid of SVM an swarm intelligence methods. Does anybody know whether I can utilize this method for my research or not? Thanks.

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Prediction models can be created in sourcecode directly or as data-driven simulation. In the sourcecode version an equation is created: $crash probability = lanewidth * shoulderwidth * curveradius$ To calculate the probability, the software asks for the parameters at runtime and estimates the ratio. This technique is similar to what a physics engine is doing. It simulates the reality with a mathematical equations.

The other option is called data-driven simulation. Here is the idea, that no equation is available but a database with cases from the past. To calculate the current crash probability, the algorithm sends a sql-query to the database and is searching for a similar situation. If the existing data-entry doesn't fit exactly to the new situation it will interpolated by a mathematical algorithm, for example with spline interpolation.

To determine which method is superior, it's important to know, that data-driven simulation is a recent idea. Since around 2005 the number of projects with that technique are growing together with the upraising of machine learning and deeplearning. The other option which is a direct equation created from scratch by a programmer is the classical form which was used before the year 2005 in the literature quite often. The reason was, that in the past no large database storage was available. If an embedded car controller has only 10 kb of RAM, it is not possible to put a database with 10 GB rawdata into that memory.

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