After self-driving cars are perfected to the degree that accident statistics are lower for them than human driven cars, will they replace cars with human drivers? Will there eventually only be self-driving cars?
It likely to be happen, because it's more convenient that way. In general people, organizations and government are always keen to make things more efficient by standarizing things (computers, technology, law, science, etc.) in order to make it manageable and predictable to reduce the time and minimalize the risk of the same mistakes.
The whole world now moves into technological advancement where automation of everything is where we are going, so we can manage complexities in more reliable way, so we can focus on much bigger picture. This includes technology such as mobiles, computers, UAV (delivery drones), robots and now self-driving cars.
The pros of that change would be:
- To have safer streets by introducing autonomous cars on the road.
- To have fewer drunk, tired, drugged or crazy drivers.
- To avoid poor weather conditions.
To reduce braking distances by dropping driver's reaction time and predicting dangerous situations much earlier.
Source: Cyber Physics
Reducing car deaths and costs of GNP.
An estimated 1.3 million people die on the world's roads every year with around 50 million injured or disabled by accidents, with accidents costing countries up to four per cent of their Gross National Product (GNP) yearly. - UN News Centre
To have central point of safety improvements, you cannot change people, but you can fix the known safety issue on global scale.
- To introduce global standards from the central point (e.g. new law to which manufactures needs to apply).
- To increase car safety in general on larger scale.
- And so on.
Why we need the 'only self-driving cars'?
The Secretary-General said the UN would work hard to prevent further deaths on the roads:
Many tragedies can be avoided through a set of proven, simple measures that benefit not only individuals and families but society at large.
Here are my points:
- To achieve 'a set of proven measures' - do not allow people to drive - simple.
- People tend to break the rules, always, so do not allow them to drive without permission.
- Reduce stealing cars and other crime.
- Law enforcement dream is to able to stop any car on demand.
- Do not allow drunk people to drive a car.
- Disallow terrorist attacks, like in Nice where truck killed over 80 people.
- Avoid bank robberies and similar which are possible by escaping fast cars.
Is it possible? I believe it depends on specific countries and unions and how quickly we're able to advance and be ready for such change.
To support above points and summarize the 'only self-driving cars' point, please see below references which shows that this is already happening:
- 2014: Uber will eventually replace all its drivers with self-driving cars
The move is seen as a first step towards changing the law for cars that have "no need for a human driver".
San Francisco’s future is autonomous and shared vehicles – and that future may be only a decade away.