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Is there an AI technology out there or being developed that can predict human behaviour, given that we as humans are irrational decision-makers?

I'm looking at this from an economic standpoint - the issue with current economic models is that they assume that humans are perfectly rational, but obviously this isn't the case. Could AI develop better models and therefore produce better models of recessions?

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  • $\begingroup$ Could you clarify what you mean by "predict"? Would doing as well as or better than another human count, even if the percentage of successful predictions is low (e.g. a human would predict someone else's behaviour and get it right 5% of the time, but a machine might get it right 10% of the time). $\endgroup$ – Neil Slater Dec 31 '19 at 9:36
  • $\begingroup$ Are you using the term 'irrational' in Game Theoretic sense? Because I haven't really seen humans make irrational decisions in game theoretical sense, may not be optimal but can't say irrational. I think Game Theory is a field you should check out for better understanding of the interaction of decision makers especially in the field of economics. $\endgroup$ – user9947 Dec 31 '19 at 12:47
  • $\begingroup$ Irrational in the sense that humans face bounded rationality. We can't make completely rational decisions like "homo economicus" because of information failure etc. $\endgroup$ – ABCBAA Dec 31 '19 at 12:50
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GPT2 predicts the next word that people will say. https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/ Facebook predicts what will make you keep using their site. Youtube predicts what videos you will click on.

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Is there an AI technology out there or being developed that can predict human behaviour ?

If it can predict (all) human behavior, it can act as an human, thus, it will be the first real (strong) AI. This has not happened yet.

I must remark that the question contains a lot of weakly defined terms. Fix these terms can help to work in the question subject:

  • "human behavior" : the behavior of an individual or the behavior of all humans as a set ? (bigger groups tends to be more predictable).
  • "irrational decision-makers" : it assumes that it exists a "rational" way of take all decisions.
  • "humans are perfectly rational, but obviously this isn't the case" : same as previous.
  • "better models and therefore better models of recessions" : recessions are not caused by "irrational decisions".

(In fact, each of these points could be an independent question at this site, more according to its manifest that all the plague of questions about neural nets).

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