Many experts seem to think that artificial general intelligence, or AGI, (on the level of humans) is possible and likely to emerge in the near-ish future. Some make the further step to say that superintelligence (much above the level of AGI) will appear soon after, through mechanisms like recursive self-improvement from AGI (from a survey).
What assumptions do those who believe in superintelligence make? The emergence of superintelligence has generally been regarded as something low-probability but possible (e.g. here). However, I can't seem to find an in-depth analysis of what assumptions are made when positing the emergence of superintelligence. What specific assumptions do those who believe in the emergence of superintelligence make that are unlikely, and what have those who believe in the guaranteed emergence of superintelligence gotten wrong?
If the emergence of superintelligence is to be seen as a low-probability event in the future (on par with asteroid strikes, etc.), which seems to be the dominant view and is the most plausible, what assumptions exactly makes it low-probability?