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What are the likely AI advancements in the next 5-10 years?

I first want to specify that I have nearly no knowledge about How AI works. I just have interest to know more and more about it.

Some examples of Weak AI at present are like Siri and Cortana, those are pretty interesting! But how high levels is it going to reach (likely) in future years?

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  • $\begingroup$ I couldn't find proper tags. Can any one edit ? $\endgroup$ – Jaideep Khare Apr 14 '17 at 15:16
  • $\begingroup$ Can someone explain me the reason of downvote? I literally don't know whether this is off-topic or not. $\endgroup$ – Jaideep Khare Apr 14 '17 at 15:44
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    $\begingroup$ It might be because your question can't be answered precisely. It might not be off topic, but it a discussion based question with too many open ends. StackExchange is not a discussion forum. You should consider asking this question somewhere else, like quora. $\endgroup$ – Ugnes Apr 15 '17 at 3:50
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    $\begingroup$ There are very many of them... From driveless cars to smart systems in every field. The future is very fantastic however your job is on probability.also think of smart drugs in every Medical Center,smart roads,smart weather generated by agi,drones protecting and supervising data centers.but this question is most likely to be a duplicated one! $\endgroup$ – quintumnia Apr 16 '17 at 19:57
  • $\begingroup$ @JaideepKhare for your information,you can also check this our Artificial Intelligence $\endgroup$ – quintumnia Apr 18 '17 at 18:11
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The determination of likelihood of advancements in any science or technology over a decade are dependent upon several technical features of culture. Not all are technical because they are elements in hardware and software design. Some are.

  • Market forces
  • Perpetuation of traditions in education
  • Feasibility
  • Availability of resources
  • Cost of research
  • Cost of deployment and sustenance
  • Natural cultural balance of curiosity and fear

The low level cybernetic conversations with service applications like Siri and Cortana were correctly identified in the question, and Google Assistant should be included. If a survey is done of these conversations by working around public relations, perhaps by using a competitor search engine to locate PR unfriendly records of conversations, the low level becomes immediately apparent1. Anyone could confirm this by asking these service applications a set of the popular questions in a set of the StackExchange sites. Most if not all of them would produce answers that would be down voted if not deleted.2

These service applications are efforts to meet the criteria of Alan Turing's thought experiment, which Turing called The Immitation Game3.

How high levels is it going to reach (likely) in future years?

Prediction of AI milestones is not possible without defining first the milestone criteria to be met. Let's pick seven coveted ones.

  1. A service application the answers of which can gain StackExchange reputation faster than humans, which is a more demanding version of Alan Turing's thought experiment
  2. A robot that can mow our lawns safely
  3. A car without steering wheel or pedals that can take us to places we typically go as safely as a median human driver can
  4. A-pets
  5. Automated theorem proving of currently problematic proofs, and not just verification
  6. Practical goal driven underwater robotic navigation
  7. A home tutor that produces a better distribution of college board exam results in students than public or private educational institutions, better meaning higher mean and lower standard deviations

Based on the seven factors already listed above plus one more, the instantaneous state of AI research and its publication during each moment of the search for probabilities regarding the above seven milestone, some probabilistic predictions can be made about 2029. The bullet items primarily driving the numbers are at the top of this answer4, 5, 6.

  1. < 1% — bullet item 2 too low, and 7 too skewed toward fear
  2. 40% — bullet item 1 too low
  3. 50% — bullet items 1, 2, 3, and 7 all favorable
  4. 2% — bullet item 2 too low, and 7 too skewed toward fear
  5. < 1% — bullet items 2 too high, 3 too low, and 7 too skewed toward fear
  6. 80% — bullet items 1 and 3
  7. 30% — bullet item 3 high, but 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7 are unfavorable

There are a few that some will find unpalatable. Service applications and automatic theorem provers are not at all likely to become smart in the way defined in the milestones within the next ten years. Robots will likely be swimming and assisting with mining, drilling, and troubleshooting. Level 5 automated vehicles may already be driving around town.


Footnotes

[1] All intelligent systems, including biological ones, have weaknesses and strengths, and the strengths are not perfectly reliable. For instance AI on a CAD application may select a screw fastener to attach one part to another in a sub-assembly with 100% accuracy 99.99999% of the time, seven 9s of accuracy. Much of the talk of general, strong, and weak AI fails the burden of mathematical rigor or scientific verifiability and is largely fabrication and self-deluding conjecture to get cushy, high profile jobs. When published or aired, it is done so not because of credibility but to get paid for ad impressions.

[2] Please don't run this experiment fully, since it would burden moderators that are volunteering to keep the sites clean. Ask the questions but do not post the answers you find. The superficiality will be obvious enough without a focus group.

[3] See the section The Turing Challenge to Cartesian Thought in the post Can a brain be intelligent without a body? for more information on Turing's work in this space and its limitations.

[4] The parenthetic (likely) in the question in the body of the question is correctly placed. The question's tag predicting-ai-milestones is also correct. The likelihoods listed will change because, as the search for likelihoods of AI milestones progresses, the eight factors listed, which are involved in the predictions, will change. This answer author may or may not change the predictions accordingly.

[5] The reasons behind these probabilities cannot be fully disclosed for contractual reasons, but what is disclosed is explained where it can be. Furthermore, the results of prediction are based on the information available to this particular answer author. Others may have other numerical numbers to offer based on other quantitative or qualitative information and can disclose what they wish and are legally allowed to do in another answer.

[6] There is no guarantee made or implied in this answer.

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The two most helpful descriptions of AI I've seen are

  1. Tactically: "Cheap Predictions"
  2. More generally: "Cheap Intelligence".

There are broadly 3 ways that AI is evolving today:

  1. Rule-based AI: if this, then that. Best when you want reliable outcomes and you want intelligence in a very rule-heavy situation (such as insurance applications).
  2. Pattern-based AI (machine / deep learning): take lots of examples, then give them labels. That picture is a cat, that is a dog, that's a malignant tumour, that's a person who defaults on a loan. This is statistical though, so "predictions" is really key here. You'll never be 100% confident with pattern-based systems but you can get good enough to rapidly accelerate human decision-making.
  3. Biomimicry: simulation of biological systems. Consider Soul Machines Baby X as state of the art here. The vision here is simulate life, get the resulting "emergent" properties of thoughts, feelings, consciousness and emotions. This is still mostly theory though.

Future AI will be a mix of all of these. Varian's Rule says "To forecast the future see how the rich live today". People talking about "democratisation" tend to mean this idea.

I'm specialising in AI for speech and text and make the observation that we're entering the age of what I call "Digital Beings" (more here on my simple thesis). The key change in this area I think will be very powerful personal coaches, companions, and concierges.

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This is what I found about Artificial Intelligence application.

A whole bunch predictions are there on the web. While surfing the internet, I found a list of 5 tech and industry predictions which says it all. The list includes:

  • Natural Language Processing: In future, most of our machinery will learn from their experiences. Currently, Amazon’s Alexa device is a live example of an application of AI in voice recognition.

  • Driverless Cars: Again, when the AI develops more and more than even our car will become driverless. It will become so common that we will almost forget the term “car driver”.

  • Clean Energy: As you know the resources are limited and the air is becoming more and more polluted. So, the only solution to this problem is clean energy which will be more efficient than our current fuels.

  • Smart Money: When everything is going digital then why not money? The currency will also become digitized to save paper and eventually trees.

  • Information Security: Now, every information is available digitally. So, to reduce data and information breaches it must become that much secure that it will become almost impossible for someone to hack.

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    $\begingroup$ Welcome to ai.se....In this stack you need to mention if an article is written by you....Here Is the 'admin' of the website you? Coz I can see your name on top of the article...Please mention it in your answer if the article is written by you else it might be treated as spam. $\endgroup$ – DuttaA Jan 17 at 17:33

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