Oxford philosopher and leading AI thinker Nick Bostrom defines SuperIntelligence as

"An intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills."

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Artificial general intelligence : Wiki

Taking into account current limitations and the amount of progress that has been made in recent years, what is a realistic timeframe to expect an AI that has human levels of cognition?


1 Answer 1


If certain philosophers are correct, Artificial General Intelligence will be, like fusion power, "always twenty years away". For the true believers, it is an inevitability, and opinions vary.

It may be most useful to look at the unreliability human predictions in this area.

There was an article in the MIT Tech Review in 2017 that contained this graphic, based on a survey of researchers in 2015:

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SOURCE: Experts Predict When Artificial Intelligence Will Exceed Human Performance (MIT Tech Review)

Most notable is that AlphaGo soundly bested the top human player in Go in March of 2016, years before even the most optimistic expert projections.

  • Everyone is just guessing, and we still don't if AGI is possible, or merely a myth.

Nevertheless, recent breakthroughs are promising!


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