I just stumbled across the paper When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts, which contains a figure showing the aggregated subjective probability of "high-level machine intelligence" arrival by future years.
Even if this graph reflects the opinion of experts, it can be totally wrong. It is just extremely hard to predict future events. So I was wondering if there is a similar graph which shows basically the same but for the game Go?
Due to the complexity of Go, some experts assumed, that no computer ever could be better in Go than a human being due to the lack of intuition. This shows that the appearance of human level AI can be unpredictable.
Does anyone know if a similar graph for Go exists to see how good or bad the predictions were? This could give a very rough idea, how good this graph predicts the future of human-level AI.