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I just stumbled across the paper When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts, which contains a figure showing the aggregated subjective probability of "high-level machine intelligence" arrival by future years.

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Even if this graph reflects the opinion of experts, it can be totally wrong. It is just extremely hard to predict future events. So I was wondering if there is a similar graph which shows basically the same but for the game Go?

Due to the complexity of Go, some experts assumed, that no computer ever could be better in Go than a human being due to the lack of intuition. This shows that the appearance of human level AI can be unpredictable.

Does anyone know if a similar graph for Go exists to see how good or bad the predictions were? This could give a very rough idea, how good this graph predicts the future of human-level AI.

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Go predictions were included in the paper:

FIT AI Prediction Survey, 2015

The experts are far from infallible. They predicted that AI would be better than humans at Go by about 2027. (This was in 2015, remember.)
SOURCE: Experts Predict When Artificial Intelligence Will Exceed Human Performance (MIT Tech Review)

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  • $\begingroup$ Thanks for pointing that out. I should have mentioned it it my question. But I wonder if a similar graph like the one I posted exists for Go where you can see estimations of many experts. $\endgroup$
    – Gilfoyle
    Commented Jul 3, 2018 at 5:40

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