# Questions tagged [probability]

For question involving probability as related to AI methods. (This tag is for general usage. Feel free to utilize in conjunction with the "math" and more specific probability tags.)

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### Does generator in conditonal GAN obey probability laws?

In probability, we have two types of probability functions: unconditional probability $p(x)$ and conditional probability $p(x | y)$. Both are fundamentally different and the latter can be obtained by ...
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### What to do when PDFs are not Gaussian/Normal in Naive Bayes Classifier

While analyzing the data for a given problem set, I came across a few distributions which are not Gaussian in nature. They are not even uniform or Gamma distributions(so that I can write a function, ...
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### Would it be any more difficult for AI/ML to beat more poker players?

Would the number of players at a poker table alter a capable AI/ML's chances of winning? I don't see how it would, so long as every player was playing fairly. I would assume that it would not matter ...
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### Why does the error ensemble use the ceiling of the number of classifiers?

What is $y$? Why is $k$ the ceil of $n/2$? What is $y \geq k$?
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### Why do I get small probabilities when implementing a multinomial naive Bayes text classification model?

When applying multinomial Naive Bayes text classification, I get very small probabilities (around $10e^{-48}$), so there's no way for me to know which classes are valid predictions and which ones are ...
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### How would the probability of a document $P(d)$ be computed in the Naive Bayes classifier?

In naive Bayes classification, we estimate the class of a document as follows $$\hat{c} = \arg \max_{c \in C} P(c \mid d) = \arg \max_{c \in C} \dfrac{ P(d \mid c)P(c) }{P(d)}$$ It has been said in ...
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### Which probability distribution a generator in Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) is capturing: dataset or ground truth?

Consider the following statement from the abstract of the paper titled Generative Adversarial Nets We propose a new framework for estimating generative models via an adversarial process, in which we ...
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### What exactly is a Parzen?

I came across the term "Parzen" while reading the research paper titled Generative Adversarial Nets. It has been used in the research paper in two contexts. #1: In phrase "Parzen window&...
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### Derivation of an probability expansion used in Word2Vec classifier model

We are using the following notations, for this question, to calculate the probability values \begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline \text{$w$} & \text{target word embedding vector} \\ \hline \text{$c$} &...
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### Self sufficient material(s) on maximum likelihood estimation

While studying techniques related to word embeddings, I came across an objective function named maximum likelihood. Word embeddings can be estimated using maximum likelihood as an objective function. ...
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### Predicting probabilities of events using neural networks

I've got a few thousands of sequences like 1.23, 2.15. 3.19, 4.30, 5.24, 6.22 where the numbers denote times on which an event happened (there's just a single ...
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### Predicting the probability of a periodically happening event occurring at a given time

I have encountered this problem on how to predict the probability of a periodically happening event occurring at a given time. For example, we have an event called being_an_undergrad. There are many ...
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### What does the argmax of the expectation of the log likelihood mean?

What does the following equation mean? What does each part of the formula represent or mean? $$\theta^* = \underset {\theta}{\arg \max} \Bbb E_{x \sim p_{data}} \log {p_{model}(x|\theta) }$$
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### How do I calculate the probabilities of the BERT model prediction logits?

I might be getting this completely wrong, but please let me first try to explain what I need, and then what's wrong. I have a classification task. The training data has 50 different labels. The ...
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### PPO2: Intuition behind Gumbel Softmax and Exploration?

I'm trying to understand the logic behind the magic of using the gumbel distribution for action sampling inside the PPO2 algorithm. This code snippet implements the action sampling, taken from here: <...
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### Aren't scores in the Wasserstein GAN probabilities?

I am quite new to GAN and I am reading about WGAN vs DCGAN. Relating to the Wasserstein GAN (WGAN), I read here Instead of using a discriminator to classify or predict the probability of generated ...
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### How to get the prediction probability of random sample image from multiclass classification model?

I am performing classification using AlexNet as transfer learning(simply say performing classification using CNN) for five types of class on 18000 images. These 18000 images are divided into Train, ...
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### Can you use machine learning for binary data?

I am totally new to artificial intelligence and neural networks and have a broad question that I hope is appropriate to ask here. I am an ecologist working in animal movement and I want to use AI to ...
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### In RL as probabilistic inference, why do we take a probability to be $\exp(r(s_t, a_t))$?

In section 2 the paper Reinforcement Learning and Control as Probabilistic Inference: Tutorial and Review the author is discussing formulating the RL problem as a probabilistic graphical model. They ...
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### Why is the entire area of a join probability distribution considered when it comes to calculating misclassification?

In the image given below, I do not understand a few things 1) Why is an entire area colored to signify misclassification? For the given decision boundary, only the points between $x_0$ and the ...
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### Reinforcement Learning (RL) how to obtain $p(s',r|s,a)$

I am trying to study the book Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction (Sutton & Barto, 2018). In chapter 3.1 the authors state the following exercise Exercise 3.5 Give a table analogous to that ...
280 views

### How can supervised learning be viewed as a conditional probability of the labels given the inputs?

In the literature and textbooks, one often sees supervised learning expressed as a conditional probability, e.g., $$\rho(\vec{y}|\vec{x},\vec{\theta})$$ where $\vec{\theta}$ denotes a learned set of ...
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### Why is probability that at least one hypothesis out of $k$ being consistent with $m$ training examples $k(1- \epsilon)^m$?

My question is actually related to the addition of probabilities. I am reading on computational learning theory from Tom Mitchell's machine learning book. In chapter 7, when proving the upper bound ...
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### What is the most efficient data type to store probabilities?

In ML we often have to store a huge amount of values ranging from 0 to 1, mostly being probabilities. The most common data structure to do so seems to be a floating point? Indeed, the range of ...
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### What are the prerequisites to start using the TensorFlow Probability library? [closed]

I have some familiarity with the regular Tensorflow library and have been able to create a number of working models with it. There are more than enough resources out there to get up and running and ...
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### Expected duration in a state

I am going through Rabiner 1989 and he writes that the discrete probability density function of duration $d$ in state $i$ (that is, staying in a state for duration $d$, conditioned on starting in that ...
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### Neural network seems to just figure out the probability of a specific result

I am really new to neural networks, so i was following along with a video series, created by '3blue1brown' on youtube. I created an implementation of the network he explained in c++. I am attempting ...
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### Formulation of a Markov Decision Process Problem

Given a list of $N$ questions. If question $i$ is answered correctly (given probability $p_i$), we receive reward $R_i$; if not the quiz terminates. Find the optimal order of questions to maximize ...
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### Convert a PAC-learning algorithm into another one which requires no knowledge of the parameter

This is part of the exercise 2.13 in the book Foundations of Machine Learning (page 28). You can refer to chapter 2 for the notations. Consider a family of concept classes \$\left\{\mathcal{C}_{s}\...
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### What are some approaches to estimate the transition and observation probabilities in POMDP?

What are some common approaches to estimate the transition or observation probabilities, when the probabilities are not exactly known? When realizing a POMDP model, the state model needs additional ...
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### Can anyone explain the pixelwise accuracy metric used in this paper? Also a question to the KL Divergence Loss

So I am making a project based on this paper: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1901/1901.07761.pdf In this paper, a U-Net is used to generate optimized mechanical structures. I am trying to ...
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### How can I convert the probability score between 0 to 1 to another format?

I have trained a multi-class CNN model using fastai. The model splits out probabilites for each of the three classes, which, of course, sum up to 1. The class with highest probability becomes the ...
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### Is there an algorithm for "contextual recognition" with probabilities?

Example 1 An object is composed of 3 sub-objects. Object 1: 90% looks like an eye 10% looks like a wheel Object 2: 50% looks like an eye 50% looks like a wheel Object 3: 90% looks like a mouth 10% ...
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### Probabilistic classification - normalize results

I have a probabilistic classifier that produces a distribution over my 3 classes - C1, C2, C3. I want to compare some new points I'm classifying to each other, to see which one is the best fit for a ...
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### How to make machine learning model that reports ambiguity of the input?

Suppose I want to build a neural network regression model that takes one input and return one output. Here's the training data: ...
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### Unique game problem (ML, DP, PP etc)

Looking for a solution to my below game problem. I believe it to require some sort of reinforcement learning, dynamic programming, or probabilistic programming solution, but am unsure... This is my ...
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### Viterbi versus filtering

In Chapter 15 of Russel and Norvig's Artificial Intelligence -- A Modern Approach (Third Edition), they describe three basic tasks in temporal inference: Filtering, Likelihood, and Finding the ...