# Questions tagged [probability]

For question involving probability as related to AI methods. (This tag is for general usage. Feel free to utilize in conjunction with the "math" and more specific probability tags.)

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### Is Nassim Taleb right about AI not being able to accurately predict certain types of distributions?

So Taleb has two heuristics to generally describe data distributions. One is Mediocristan, which basically means things that are on a Gaussian distribution such as height and/or weight of people. The ...
3k views

### What is a Markov chain and how can it be used in creating artificial intelligence?

I believe a Markov chain is a sequence of events where each subsequent event depends probabilistically on the current event. What are examples of the application of a Markov chain and can it be used ...
289 views

### Are probabilistic models dead ends in AI?

I am a strong believer of Marvin Minsky's idea about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and one of his thoughts was that probabilistic models are dead ends in the field of AGI. I would really ...
486 views

### Reinforcement Learning (RL) how to obtain $p(s',r|s,a)$

I am trying to study the book Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction (Sutton & Barto, 2018). In chapter 3.1 the authors state the following exercise Exercise 3.5 Give a table analogous to that ...
693 views

### How does the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence differ from the Bayesian reasoning under uncertainty?

Dempster–Shafer theory (wiki) Bayesian probability (wiki) How do these two methods handle uncertainty in regard to information fusion?
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### What are some approaches to estimate the transition and observation probabilities in POMDP?

What are some common approaches to estimate the transition or observation probabilities, when the probabilities are not exactly known? When realizing a POMDP model, the state model needs additional ...
132 views

### What to do when PDFs are not Gaussian/Normal in Naive Bayes Classifier

While analyzing the data for a given problem set, I came across a few distributions which are not Gaussian in nature. They are not even uniform or Gamma distributions(so that I can write a function, ...
97 views

### Why do I get small probabilities when implementing a multinomial naive Bayes text classification model?

When applying multinomial Naive Bayes text classification, I get very small probabilities (around $10e^{-48}$), so there's no way for me to know which classes are valid predictions and which ones are ...
121 views

### The problem with the Gambler's Problem in RL

Recently I simulated the Gambler's Problem in RL: Now, the problem is, the curve does not at all appear the way as given in the book. The "best policy" curve appears a lot more undulating than it is ...
41 views

### Was Nils Nilsson wrong with probabilistic knowledge representation?

He starts his paper from 1987  with a reference to the PROSPECTOR expert system which was using Bayes rules to handle uncertain knowledge. Then he explains the idea behind probabilistic logic which ...
126 views

### How to make machine learning model that reports ambiguity of the input?

Suppose I want to build a neural network regression model that takes one input and return one output. Here's the training data: ...
111 views

### What are the meanings of these (P(x;y), P(x;y,z),P(x,y;z))?

I was reading a machine learning book that uses probabilities like these: $P(x;y), P(x;y,z), P(x,y;z)$ I couldn't find what they are and how can I read and understand them? Apart from the context, ...
50 views

### Why is probability that at least one hypothesis out of $k$ being consistent with $m$ training examples $k(1- \epsilon)^m$?

My question is actually related to the addition of probabilities. I am reading on computational learning theory from Tom Mitchell's machine learning book. In chapter 7, when proving the upper bound ...
92 views

### How can I convert the probability score between 0 to 1 to another format?

I have trained a multi-class CNN model using fastai. The model splits out probabilites for each of the three classes, which, of course, sum up to 1. The class with highest probability becomes the ...
71 views

### Is there an AI model with “certainty” built in?

If I see a hundred elephants and fifty of them are grey I'd say the probability of an elephant being grey is 50%. And my certainty of that probability is high. However, if I see two elephants and one ...
222 views

### Why are VAE's useful?

I am not sure I understand what is the advantage of using a VAE's over a deterministic Auto Encoder? For example, assuming we have just 2 labels, a deterministic Auto Encoder will always map a given ...
430 views

### How can I develop a prediction algorithm for a game of chance?

How can I develop a prediction algorithm in the case of games of chance? Suppose there is a 50:50 chance of winning. Is there way of creating a prediction algorithm?
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### What are the prerequisites to start using the TensorFlow Probability library? [closed]

I have some familiarity with the regular Tensorflow library and have been able to create a number of working models with it. There are more than enough resources out there to get up and running and ...