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# Questions tagged [probability]

For question involving probability as related to AI methods. (This tag is for general usage. Feel free to utilize in conjunction with the "math" and more specific probability tags.)

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18 votes
2 answers
4k views

### Are softmax outputs of classifiers true probabilities?

BACKGROUND: The softmax function is the most common choice for an activation function for the last dense layer of a multiclass neural network classifier. The outputs of the softmax function have ...
• 952
10 votes
2 answers
4k views

### Is Nassim Taleb right about AI not being able to accurately predict certain types of distributions?

So Taleb has two heuristics to generally describe data distributions. One is Mediocristan, which basically means things that are on a Gaussian distribution such as height and/or weight of people. The ...
• 171
7 votes
2 answers
4k views

### What is a Markov chain and how can it be used in creating artificial intelligence?

I believe a Markov chain is a sequence of events where each subsequent event depends probabilistically on the current event. What are examples of the application of a Markov chain and can it be used ...
• 2,513
6 votes
2 answers
369 views

### Are probabilistic models dead ends in AI?

I am a strong believer of Marvin Minsky's idea about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and one of his thoughts was that probabilistic models are dead ends in the field of AGI. I would really ...
• 345
5 votes
1 answer
1k views

### What does the argmax of the expectation of the log likelihood mean?

What does the following equation mean? What does each part of the formula represent or mean? $$\theta^* = \underset {\theta}{\arg \max} \Bbb E_{x \sim p_{data}} \log {p_{model}(x|\theta) }$$
• 181
3 votes
2 answers
2k views

### How can supervised learning be viewed as a conditional probability of the labels given the inputs?

In the literature and textbooks, one often sees supervised learning expressed as a conditional probability, e.g., $$\rho(\vec{y}|\vec{x},\vec{\theta})$$ where $\vec{\theta}$ denotes a learned set of ...
• 33
3 votes
1 answer
106 views