# Questions tagged [probability]

For question involving probability as related to AI methods. (This tag is for general usage. Feel free to utilize in conjunction with the "math" and more specific probability tags.)

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### Is Nassim Taleb right about AI not being able to accurately predict certain types of distributions?

So Taleb has two heuristics to generally describe data distributions. One is Mediocristan, which basically means things that are on a Gaussian distribution such as height and/or weight of people. The ...
3k views

### What is a Markov chain and how can it be used in creating artificial intelligence?

I believe a Markov chain is a sequence of events where each subsequent event depends probabilistically on the current event. What are examples of the application of a Markov chain and can it be used ...
285 views

### Are probabilistic models dead ends in AI?

I am a strong believer of Marvin Minsky's idea about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and one of his thoughts was that probabilistic models are dead ends in the field of AGI. I would really ...
647 views

### How does the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence differ from the Bayesian reasoning under uncertainty?

Dempsterâ€“Shafer theory (wiki) Bayesian probability (wiki) How do these two methods handle uncertainty in regard to information fusion?
395 views

### Reinforcement Learning (RL) how to obtain $p(s',r|s,a)$

I am trying to study the book Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction (Sutton & Barto, 2018). In chapter 3.1 the authors state the following exercise Exercise 3.5 Give a table analogous to that ...
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### Why error ensemble uses ceiling of number of classifiers?

What is y? Why is k the ceil of n/2? What is â€˜y â‰¥ kâ€™
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### Neural network seems to just figure out the probability of a specific result

I am really new to neural networks, so i was following along with a video series, created by '3blue1brown' on youtube. I created an implementation of the network he explained in c++. I am attempting ...
41 views

### Why am I getting the logarithm of the probability bigger than zero when using Neural Spline Flows?

I am using a normalizing flow (Neural Spline Flows) to approximate a probability. After some training, the average loss is around 0.5 (so the logarithm of the probability = -0.5). However, when I am ...
34 views

### Can anyone explain the pixelwise accuracy metric used in this paper? Also a question to the KL Divergence Loss

So I am making a project based on this paper: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1901/1901.07761.pdf In this paper, a U-Net is used to generate optimized mechanical structures. I am trying to ...
14 views

### Is there an algorithm for “contextual recognition” with probabilities?

Example 1 An object is composed of 3 sub-objects. Object 1: 90% looks like an eye 10% looks like a wheel Object 2: 50% looks like an eye 50% looks like a wheel Object 3: 90% looks like a mouth 10% ...
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### Probabilistic classification - normalize results

I have a probabilistic classifier that produces a distribution over my 3 classes - C1, C2, C3. I want to compare some new points I'm classifying to each other, to see which one is the best fit for a ...
45 views

### Unique game problem (ML, DP, PP etc)

Looking for a solution to my below game problem. I believe it to require some sort of reinforcement learning, dynamic programming, or probabilistic programming solution, but am unsure... This is my ...
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### How to use SLAM on other sensor other than camera?

I have a sensor that reads electromagnetic field strength from each position. And the field is stable and unique for each position. So the reading is simply a function of the position like this: <...
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### How to make machine learning model that reports ambiguity of the input?

Suppose I want to build a neural network regression model that takes one input and return one output. Here's the training data: ...
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### What are the prerequisites to start using the TensorFlow Probability library? [closed]

I have some familiarity with the regular Tensorflow library and have been able to create a number of working models with it. There are more than enough resources out there to get up and running and ...