Questions tagged [uncertainty-quantification]

For questions about uncertainty quantification (aka uncertainty estimation) in the context of artificial intelligence, in particular, in the context of Bayesian machine learning.

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Do we need as much information to know if we can can answer a question as we need to actually answer the question?

I am reading The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect by Judea Pearl, and in page 12 I see the following diagram. The box on the right side of box 5 "Can the query be answered?" ...
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How were the pictures for Geo-reCAPTCHA selected?

I learned from this site that reCAPTCHA is utilized as a method to digitize distorted characters by offer an unknown one and a known one. Much like a Mechanical Turk application, ReCaptcha uses ...
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Why does this formula $\sigma^2 + \frac{1}{T}\sum_{t=1}^Tf^{\hat{W_t}}(x)^Tf^{\hat{W_t}}(x_t)-E(y)^TE(y)$ approximate the variance?

How does: $$\text{Var}(y) \approx \sigma^2 + \frac{1}{T}\sum_{t=1}^Tf^{\hat{W_t}}(x)^Tf^{\hat{W_t}}(x_t)-E(y)^TE(y)$$ approximate variance? I'm currently reading What Uncertainties Do We Need in ...
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How can I use Monte Carlo Dropout in a pre-trained CNN model?

In Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), I know that I should enable dropout during training and testing, then get multiple predictions for the same input $x$ by performing multiple forward passes with $x$, then,...
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Why is my Keras prediction always close to 100% for one image class?

I am using Keras (on top of TF 2.3) to train an image classifier. In some cases I have more than two classes, but often there are just two classes (either "good" or "bad"). I am ...
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56 views

Is there any research on models that provide uncertainty estimation?

Is there any research on machine learning models that provide uncertainty estimation? If I train a denoising autoencoder on words and put through a noised word, I'd like it to return a certainty that ...