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You can try using an "Open-Loop" MCTS approach, instead of the standard "closed-loop" one, and eliminate chance nodes altogether. See, for example, Open Loop Search for General Video Game Playing. In a "standard" (closed-loop) implementation, you would store a game state in every normal (non-chance) node. Whenever there is a chance event, you would ...

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External sampling and outcome sampling are two ways of defining the sets $Q_1, \dots, Q_n$. I think your mistake is that you think of the $Q_i$ as fixed and taken as input in these shampling schemes. It is not the case. In external sampling, there is as many sets $Q_{\tau}$ as there are pure strategies for the opponent and the chance player (a pure strategy ...

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I have calculated an upper bound and modified a calculation of a lower bound for a similar game. I assume the real size is closer to the upper bound. $$7.36 \cdot 10^{27} \leq |SPADES| \leq 3.09 \cdot 10^{72}$$ Upper bound The State-space complexity of Spades can be computed by counting for each possible starting state (deal), all the possible sequences ...

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It is very likely that you want an algorithm like Counterfactual Minimax Regret. This algorithm has several variants, but they differ mostly in their efficiency. CFR is the algorithm that was used to solve 2-Player Poker, although the solution comes from one of its more advanced versions. The algorithm is highly applicable to other games of incomplete ...

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