The AI in a box experiment is about a super strong game AI which starts with lower resources than the opponent and the question is, if the AI is able to win the game at the end, which is equal to escape from the prison. A typical example is a match of computer chess in which the AI player starts only with a king, but the human starts with all the 16 pieces including the queen, and the powerful bishop.
Winning the game
In case of a very asymmetric setup, the AI has no chance to win the game. Even if the AI thinks 100 moves ahead, a single king can't win against 16 opponent figures. But what happens, if the AI starts with 8 pieces and the human with 16? A formalized hypothesis will look like:
strength of the AI x resources weakness = strength of the human x resources strength
To put the AI for sure into a prison, the strength of the AI should be low and it's resources too. If the resources are low but the strength is middle, then the AI has a certain chance to escape from the prison. And if the AI has maximum strength and maximum resources, then the human player gets a serious problem.
Is this formalized prediction supported by the AI literature in academia?